Монголын нүүрс ба хятадын зах зээл

khushuut_0Уул уурхайгаас улсын төсөвт ордог мөнгөний хэмжээ сараас сард буурсаар байна. Нүүрсний олборлолт буурч, экспортод гаргаж байгаа нүүрсний хэмжээ өнгөрсөн жилийнхтэй харьцуулашгүй багассан нь эдийн засагт хямрал дагуулаад байгаа юм. Гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалт хумигдахын хэрээр Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг эрдэлтэй байдалд ороод байгааг, энэ хямралаас гарах ямар боломж бололцоо байна вэ гэдгийг энэ удаа хөндөж байгаа юм. Уул уурхайн салбар бол Монголын эдийн засгийн гол хөшүүрэг юм. Улсын төсвийн 60 гаруй хувийг уул уурхайн салбараас, тодруулбал ашигт малтмалын экспортын орлогоос бүрдүүлдэг. Он гарсаар ашигт малтмалын эксгюртоос олох ашиг буурч байгаа нь Монголын эдийн засгийг эрсдэлд оруулаад байна. Гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалт хумигдаж, нүүрсний салбарын борлуулалт эрс муудаж байгаа гол шалтгаан нь Монгол Улсын төрийн бодлого, зохицуулалттай холбоотой гэдгийг ч мэргэжилтнүүд сануулсаар байгаа юм.

2011 онд Монгол Улс эдийн засгийн өсөлтөөрөө дэлхийд гайхуулж байлаа. Гэтэл өнөөдөр Монгол Улсын эдийн засаг хүнд байдалд орж, улсын төсвийн дийлэнхийг бүрдүүлж байсан нүүрсний салбар уналтад ороод байгаа билээ. Монгол бол дэлхийн эрчим хүчний шинэ тоглогч хэмээнзарлаж байсантэр цагулиран одож, өнөөдөр олборлосон нүүрсээ яаж зарах вэ гэдэг толгойны өвчин Монголынэрхбаригчдыгзовоож байн. Газрын доорх асар их баялгийнхаа ачаар дэлхийн анхаарлын төвд орсон Монгол Улсын төрийн бодлого шийдвэр гадаад, дотоодын хөрөнгө оруулагчдын анхаарлыг зүй ёсоор татдаг. Ойлгомжгүй, тодорхойгүй хууль, олон хууль журмуудаас нь болж гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулагчдын олонх нь Монголоос “залхаж”, уул уурхай болон уул уурхайн салбарыг түшиглэн хөгжүүлэх олон төсөл хөтөлбөр гацаанд ороод байна.

Ингэхэд яагаад Монголоос хөрөнгө оруулагчид дүрвэх болов. Нүүрсний борлуулалт ямар учир шалтгааны улмаас муудав. Энэ бүх асуултын хариулт Монголын улстөрчдийн хариуцлагагүй байдалтай холбоотой юм. Ил тод шударгаар тоглож чаддаггүй, эргэж буцсан олон ааштай, хартай, хуулиа дээдэлдэггүй, хэтэрхий намчирхаж, улстөрждөг Монголын улстөрчдийн араншин уул уурхайн салбарыг гацаанд оруулж, эдийн засагт эрсдэл үүсгээд байна гэж дүгнэхэд буруудахгүй биз. Өнгөрсөн гуравдугаар сард Хятад улс нийт 4,6 сая тонн коксжих нүүрс импортолсон нь хоёрдугаар сартай харьцуулбал 15 хувиар буурсан тухай тус улсын Гаалийн Ерөнхий газраас мэдээлжээ. Тус улсын коксжих нүүрсний импортын бууралт оны эхнээс ажиглагдаж эхэлсэн юм. Өнгөрсөн нэгдүгээр сард Хятадын нүүрсний импорт зургаан хувь, хоёрдугаар сард 24,5 хувиар тус тус буурсан байна. Харин коксжих нүүрсний импортын үнийн хувьд хоёрдугаар сард дунджаар 180 доллар байсан бол гуравдугаар сард 168 доллар болон буурчээ. 2013 оны эхний улирлын байдлаар тус улсад нүүрсний гол импортлогч орнуудын тоонд Австрали, Канад, Орос, Америк, Индонези болон Монгол улс багтсан байна. 2012 онд Хятад улс дээ 53 сая тонн коксжих нүүрс импортлон “дээд амжилт” тогтоож байсан юм. Тэгвэл энэ онд импортын хэмжээгээ 5 хувиар нэмэгдүүлэн 56 сая тоннд хүргэх төлөвлөгөөтэй байна. Хятад нь дэлхийн коксжих нүүрсний импортын 15-25 хувийг эзэлдэг юм. Харин Япон энэ чиглэлд тэргүүлэгч улс хэвээр байна.

Гуравдугаар сарын сүүлээр “ВНР ВШИоп МКзиЫзГп АШапсе” компани нэг тонныг нь 172 доллараар борлуулах гэрээ байгуулснаар дэлхийн зах зээл дэх коксжих нүүрсний хоёрдугаар улирлын үнийгтогтоогоод байгаа юм. Өнгөрсөн 2012 оны тавдугаар сараас эхлэн хүлээлтийн байдалтай байсан Монголын уул уурхайн салбар хямралын байдалд шилжчихээд байгаа юм. Монголын засгийн газраас тоглоомын дүрмээ тодорхой болгохыг нь хүлээж цөхсөн хөрөнгө оруулагчид дүрвэж эхэлснээр

Монголын дотоодын зах зээлд сөрөг үзэгдлүүд гарч эхлээд байгаа. Уул уурхайн хөрөнгө оруулалтыг түшиглэн үйл ажиллагаа явуулдаг дотоодын компаниуд хаалгаа барьж, ажилчид нь ажилгүйчүүдийн эгнээг тэлэх болсон. Уул уурхайн салбарын хямралд Монголын эдийн засаг яагаад өртөж, доройтох болов гэдэг асуултад мэргэжилтнүүд хэд хэдэн үндсэн шалтгаанаар тайлбарлаж байна. Байгалийн баялгаасаа олсон ашгаа баруун солгойгүй цацаж үрсэн нь Монголын эдийн засгийг эрсдэлд оруулах нэг шалтгаан болсон билээ. Шинэчлэлийн Засгийн газрын уул уурхайн салбарт барих тоглоомын дүрмийг гадаадынхан багагүй хүлээсний эцэст тэсвэр алдсан гэдэг тайлбарыг мэргэжилтнүүдхийжбайгаа юм. Гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулагчдын хувьд Монгол Улс уул уурхайн салбарт ямар тоглоомын дүрэм баримтлахаа ил тод болгохыг хүссэн ч Монголын эрхбаригчдын зүгээс энэ талаар ямар өнөөдрийг хүртэл таг байгаа юм. Гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалтын тухай хууль болон Ашигт малтмалын тухай хуулийн шинэчилсэн найруулгын төсөл нь гаднын хөрөнгө оруулагчдыг, үргээсэн маш муу хууль боллоо гэх зэмлэл жил гаруй үргэлжилж байгаа билээ. Зургаа дахь удаагаа шинэчлэн найруулсан Ашигт малтмалын тухай хууль хэзээ батлагдах нь тодорхойгүй байгаагийн улмаасхөрөнгө оруулагчид Монголоос дүрвэх болоод байгаа. Өнгөрсөн өвөл уг хуулийг хэд хэдэн удаа хэлэЛцүүлсэн ч иргэдээс олигтой үнэлгээ авч чадаагүй юм. Тиймээс эргүүлэн татсан уг хуулийг хэзээ чамбайрахыг, хөрөнгө оруулагчид болоод монголын Засгийн газар аль алинд нь ашигтай, нөхөөс, цоорхой багатай хууль батлагдахыг хөрөнгө оруулагчид хүлээсээр л байгаа юм. Ашигт малтмалын тухай хуулийн төслийг Ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуулийн дараа УИХ-аар хэлэлцэх байх гэсэн мэдээлэл байна. Харамсалтай нь тэр хүртэл хүлээхийг хүсээгүй гаднынхан хөрөнгөө хумьж, энэ хавраас өрнөнө хэмээн тооцоолж байсан олон арван төсөл, хөтөлбөр гацаж, зарим нь буцаж байна. Өнөөдөр гаднын хөрөнгө оруулагчид, тэр дундаа уул уурхайн бизнесмэнүүд шинээр батлах хуульд сул тал, ашигтай зүйл гарах нь уу хэмээн ажиглахын зэрэгцээ бусад улсад хөрөнгө оруулж, мөнгөе эргэлдүүлж эхэллээ. Эдийн засгийн хөгжилд ус, агаар мэт хэрэгтэй гадаадын хөрөнгө оруулалтыг ингээд “явуулчих” нь хайран. Тиймээс тоглоомын дүрмээ ил тод болгож, нүүрсний салбараа хямралаас гаргах цаг болжээ

Хятадтай хаяа залган оршиж байгаа нь хамгийн том боломж билээ. Харин энэ боломжоо үргээвэл Монголын эдийн засагт эрсдэл тулгарах нь дамжиггүй. Эдийн засгийн өсөлтөөрөө дэлхийд гайхуулах болсонд нөлөөлсөн гол чухал зүйл бол нүүрсний экспортоос олсон орлого. Харамсалтай нь нүүрсний экспортын хэмжээ болон ашиг нь өнгөрсөн оноос эхлэн буурсаар байгаа юм. Тиймээс нүүрсний салбарт зориулсан тусгай хууль тогтоомж хэрэгтэй байгааг албаны хүмүүс ярьж байна. Өнгөрсөн хугацааг Монголчууд хэтэрхий улстөржиж өнгөрөөснөөс болоод Монголоос хөрөнгө оруулагчид дүрвэж, зугатах боллоо. Тиймээс хөрөнгө оруулагчдыг дүрвэх болсон олон шалтгаануудыг тодруулж, эдийн засгийн гол хөшүүрэг болоод байгаа уул уурхайн салбар дахь тоглоомын дүрмээ ил тод нээлттэй болгох цаг болсныг эрхбаригчдад сануулахад буруудахгүй бизээ. Монгол Улс байгалийн баялгаа мөнгө болгохгүйгээр хөгжил ирэхгүй.

“Уул уурхайн мэдээ” сонин


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