Санхүүжилт нь саарсан ИПОТЕКИЙН ЗЭЭЛ

olloo_mn_1431311697_ipotekМанай улсын орон сууцны зах зээлийн нийлүүлэлт нь хальж, эрэлт нъ татарсаар байна. Үүнээс болж борлуулалт жилээс жилд буурсаар байгааг cap бүрийн орон сууцны индексийн үзүүлэлтээс харж болно. 2012 онд 19 мянган орон сууц борлуулагдсан бол 2013 онд орон сууцны ипотекийн зээлийн хөтөлбөрийг хэрэгжүүлж эхэлснээр 38.3 мянган орон сууц эзнээ олжээ. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, хөтөлбөр хэрэгжсэнээс хойш орон сууцны борлуулалтын 61 хувийг ипотекийн зээлийн санхүүжилтээр худалдсан байна. Энэ хугацаанд 90 мянган өрх дөрвөн их наяд төгрөгийн зээл авч, орон сууцандаа оржээ. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, хөтөлбөрийн хүрээнд орон сууцтай болох иргэдийн тоо нэмэгдсэн ч өнөөг хүртэл нийлүүлэлт нь эрэлтээ давсаар байна. Анх энэ хөтөлбөрийг барилгын материалын үнэ тогтворжуулах дэд хөтөлбөртэй уялдуулан хэрэгжүүлж эхэлсэн ч цаашид үргэлжлүүлэхийн тулд санхүүжилтийн хямд эх үүсвэр олох, эсвэл эргэн төлөлтийн хэмжээ нь шинэ зээлийг санхүүжүүлэх түвшинд хүртэл завсарлаж шаардлагатай байгааг Монголбанкны удирдлагууд хэлж байна.

ХОЁР ӨРӨӨ БАЙР ХАМГИЙН ИХ ЭРЭЛТТЭЙ БАЙНА

Энэ оны гуравдугаар сарын байдлаар Улаанбаатар хотод 83.6 мянган шинэ орон сууцны 392 төсөл хэрэгжиж байгаагаас захиалга авч эхлээгүй 42, захиалга авч буй 41 мянган орон сууц байна. Захиалга авч буй орон сууцнуудын 22.5 мянга нь борлогджээ. Тэгэхээр 60 гаруй мянган хоосон орон сууц барилгын салбарт байгаа гэсэн үг. Эдийн засаг өсөх үед орон сууцны үнэ өсөх хандлагатай байдаг. Орон сууцны үнэ өсвөл барилгын салбар идэвхжиж, ажиллах хүчин, үл хөдлөх хөрөнгө зуучлал, санхүүгийн салбарынхны цалин, орлого нэмэгдэх боломжтой.

Гэвч сүүлийн жилүүдэд эдийн засгийн хямрал нүүрлэсэнтэй холбоотойгоор орон сууцны үнэ бага зэрэг буурч байна. Тухайлбал, Монголбанк “Тэнхлэг зууч” компанитай хамтран cap бүр орон сууцны үнийн индексийн судалгаа танилцуулдаг. Судалгаагаар өнгөрсөн сарын байдлаар шинэ орон сууцны ам метрийн дундаж үнэ хоёр сая төгрөг болж, өмнөх сараас 0.8 хувиар хямдарсан бол, жилийн өмнөх үеэс 0.2 хувиар өсчээ. Харин хуучин хоёр өрөө байр 72.5 сая төгрөг болж, жилийн өмнөх үеэс бараг 10 хувиар хямдарсан байна. Гэсэн ч барилгын компаниуд ханшийн савалгаанд өртсөн, борлуулалт удааширсантай холбоотойгоор орон сууцны үнэ цаашид тогтвортой байх хандлагатай байгааг ‘Тэнхлэг зууч” ХХК-ийн Гүйцэтгэх захирал Д.Должинсүрэн онцолсон.

Орон сууцны эрэлтэд өрхийн өсөлт, бүтэц, орлого болон зээлийн нөхцөл нөлөөлдөг. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, хүн амын шилжилт хөдөлгөөн, шинэ өрхийн өсөлт, хүн амын орлогын түвшингээс хамааран эрэлт өсч, буурч байдаг. Мөн тухайн зээлийн хүү, хугацаа, урьдчилгаа төлбөрөөс ихээхэн шалтгаалдаг аж. Харин нийлүүлэлтэд орон сууцны үнэ, ипотекийн зээлийн хүүгийн түвшин, түрээсийн орон сууцны үнэ ханш, татвар, даатгал зэрэг нөлөөлнө. Ипотекийн зээлийн хөтөлбөр хэрэгжсэнээр электрон барааны борлуулалт ихээхэн тэлж, хоёр өрөө байр эрэлттэй болжээ. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, өмнө нь нэг өрөө байр эрэлттэй байсан бол, одоо хоёр өрөө байр хамгийн эрэлттэй болжээ. Тухайлбал, хуучин орон сууцны зар түгээдэг WWW. shuurkhaizar.mn вэб сайтад 22 мянга орон сууцны зар байгаагаас хоёр өрөө орон сууцны зар 50 хувийг эзэлж байна. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, хоёр өрөө орон сууц зарах нийлүүлэлт их, нэг болон гурван өрөө орон сууцны нийлүүлэлт дунд, дөрөв ба түүнээс дээш өрөө орон сууц зарах нийлүүлэлт бага байна. Ипотекийн 10 зээлдэгч тутмын нэг нь дөрвөн өрөө байр авч байгаа аж.

ХӨТӨЛБӨРИЙГ ҮРГЭЛЖЛҮҮЛЭХЭД САРД 20-25 ТЭРБУМ ТӨГРӨГИЙН САНХҮҮЖИЛТ ШААРДЛАГАТАЙ

2013 онд Засгийн газраас дундаж орлоготой иргэдийг дэмжиж, орон сууцжуулах зорилгоор найман хувийн хөнгөлөлттэй зээлийн нөхцөлөөр орон сууц худалдан авах боломж олгож 14 арилжааны банкаар дамжуулан зээл олгож эхэлсэн. Ингэхдээ ипотекийн зээлийн 78 хувийг орон сууцны ипотскийн санхүүжилтийн тогтвортой тогтолцоог бүрдүүлэх хөтөлбөрийн хүрээнд олгосон бол 20 хувийг арилжааны банкууд өөрийн эх үүсвэрээр, хоёр хувийг бусад эх үүсвэрээр олгосон байна. Монголбанкны дэд ерөнхийлөгч Б.Лхагвасүрэн “Өнгөрсөн дөрвөн жилд ипотекийн зээлийн санхүүжилт тогтвортой байсан ч сүүлийн үед асуудал дагуулах боллоо. Монголбанкнаас тус хөтөлбөрийг хэрэгжүүлэхэд мөнгөний бодлоготой уялдахгүй байгаа. Мөн ОУВС-гаас төсвийн шинж чанартай хэрэгжүүлж буй төсөл, хөтөлбөрүүдээ зогсоох болзол тавьсан. Тиймээс Засгийн газрын мөрийн хөтөлбөрт 2020 он хүртэл ипотекийн зээлийн хөтөлбөрийг хэрэгжүүлэхээр тусгасны дагуу 2018 онд Засгийн газарт шилжүүлэхээр болж, тэр хүртэл Монголбанк зөвхөн үндсэн болон купоны төлбөрийн эргэн төлөлтийн орлогоор ипотекийн зээлийг санхүүжүүлэх болсон. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, өмнө зээл авсан иргэдийн эргэн төлөлтөөр дараагийн иргэдэд зээл олгож буй юм. Одоогоор бид сард 25 орчим тэрбум төгрөгийн санхүүжилт олгож байгаа ч эрэлт, хэрэгцээг хангаж чадахгүй байгаа. Сард ойролцоогоор 60 тэрбум төгрөгийн санхүүжилт олгоход уг хөтөлбөр хэвийн явагдах боломжтой. Ингэхийн тулд дахиад 20-25 орчим тэрбум төгрөгийн эх үүсвэр олох шаардлага тулгарч байгаа юм. Засгийн газраас олгоно гэвэл бондын хүү 14 хувь байхад, зээл олговол зургаан хувийн зөрүүг яах вэ гэдэгт асуудал тулгарсан учраас энэ оны хувьд улсын төсвөөс олгохоор болж төсвийн тодотголд 111 тэрбум төгрөг суулгасан. Тэгэхээр энэ жилдээ ямартай ч улсаас санхүүжилт олгоно. Цаашид хаанаас санхүүжилт олох вэ гэдэг л асуудалтай байна. Үүнийг арилжааны банкууд өөрийн эх үүсвэрээр олгоё гэхээр хадгаламжийн хүү 14-15 хувь байхад, найман хувийн хувийн зээл олговол зургаан хувийн алдагдлыг хэн нөхөх вэ гэдэг асуудал гарч ирээд байгаа юм. Тиймээс уг асуудлыг шийдэхийн тулд Засгийн газраас ажлын хэсэг байгуулан, Монголбанк Сангийн яам, Барилга хот байгуулалтын яамтай хамтран судалгааны ажил хийж байгаа” гэв.

Монголбанкны Судалгаа, статистикийн газраас ипотекийн зээлд хамрагдах боломжтой иргэдийг судалжээ. Энэ талаар Монголбанкны Судалгаа, статистикийн газрын захирал Д.Ган-Очир “Хүн амын орлогын бүтцийг харгалзан авч үзвэл ипотекийн зээлд хамрагдах иргэдийн эрэлт, хэрэгцээ байсаар байгаа. Одоогоор 14 арилжааны банкинд 3000 мянга гаруй өрхийн хүсэлт хуримтлагдчихсан, шийдэгдэж дуусаагүй байна. Бид удахгүй судалгааны талаар дэлгэрэнгүй танилцуулна. Энэ хөтөлбөрийг Засгийн газарт шилжүүлбэл ямар өөрчлөлт гарахыг нарийн судалж байна. Засгийн газар хэрэгжүүлж эхэлбэл зээлийг аль болох зорилтот бүлэг рүү чиглүүлэх ёстой. Иргэд 30 хувийн урьдчилгаа төлбөр, найман хувийн зээлийн хүүг бууруулах тухай санал, хүсэлт их ирүүлдэг. Зээл бол санхүүгийн бүтээгдэхүүн учраас ирэх 10-20 жилийн хугацаанд ямар ч эрсдэл үүрэхгүй гэсэн баталгаа байхгүй. Нөгөө талаас, банкны салбар тогтвортой байх ёстой гэдгийг харгалзан 30 хувь гэж тогтоосон юм. Харин найман хувийн хүү бол зах зээлийн хүү биш. Дэлхийн улс орнууд тухайн улсын нийгэм, эдийн засгийн нөхцөл байдалтай уялдуулан зээлийн хүүг янз бүрээр тогтоосон байдаг.

Манай улсын хувьд найман хувийн хүү бол хамгийн тохиромжтой хэмжээ юм. Учир нь манай улсын эдийн засаг том биш, төгрөгийн ханш сул учраас түүнээс багасгах боломж хомс. Манай улсын орон сууцны зээл ДНБ-ний 23 хувийг эзэлж байна. Санхүүгийн зах зээл өндөр хөгжсөн орнуудтай харьцуулахад бага хэдий ч Монгол Улстай ойролцоо эдийн засагтай орнуудтай харьцуулахад өндөр хэмжээнд байгаа” гэв.

Энэ оны эхний гурван сарын байдлаар банкуудын ипотекийн зээлийн нийт үлдэгдэл дөрвөн их наяд төгрөг байна. Өнгөрсөн гуравдугаар сард 64.5 тэрбум ипотекийн зээл олгожээ. Бид цаашид энэ хөтөлбөрийг тогтвортой үргэлжлүүлэхийн тулд иргэдийн амьжиргааны түвшин, орлогын хэмжээг нарийн судлах шаардлагатай. Гэвч ипотекийг зээлийг иргэдийн худалдан авах чадвар, амьжиргааны түвшинтэй хэрхэн уялдуулах талаар өнөөг хүртэл ямар ч судалгаа хийгээгүй гэнэ.

Энэ талаар УИХ-ын гишүун асан, эдайн засагч С.Дэмбэрэл “Манайд иргэдийг санхүүгийн хзрэглэгч гэдэг талаас худалдан авах чадварыг дэмжих, хэрэглэгчийн эрх ашгийг хамгаалах хууль, эрх зүйн орчин бүрдээгүй. Бусад орнуудад иргэдийн орон сууц худалдан авах боломжийн индекс гэж гаргадаг. Орон сууц худалдан авахад өрхийн орлого хүрч байна уу, орлогын хэдэн хувийг зарцуулж байна гэх мэт судалгаа хийх шаардлагатай. Ийм судалгааны дүнг үндэслэн цаашид энэ хөтөлбөрийн юуг шинэчилж өөрчлөх шаардлагатай болохыг мэдэж болно. Энэ хөтөлбөрийг урт хугацаанд үргэлжлүүлэхийн тулд зөвхөн хэдэн орон сууц барьснаар шийдэгдэхгүй. Тэгэхээр бид моргейжийн хөтөлбөрийг залууст зориулан эхний жилд бага нөхцөлтэйгөөр олгох боломжтой эсэхийг судлах хэрэгтэй. Өөрөөр халбэл, уян хатан бодлогыг барих ёстой. Тэгэхгүйгээр хүүгийн хэмжээг бууруулж, урьдчилгаа төлбөрийг багасгах нь учир дутагдалтай юм. 1.1 саяас дээш өрхийн орлоготой 90 гаруй мянган иргэн энэ хөтөлбөрт хамрагдсан. Цаашид 700-900 мянган төгрөгний орлоготой иргэдийг хамруулах боломжийг судлах хэрэгтэй. Гол нь цалингийн орлогоосоо зээлийн хүүгээ төлөөд цаана нь хэрэглээндээ зарцуулах мөнгөтэй үлдэж байна уу үгүй юу гэдгийг бодолцох ёстой. Ингээд төр, сангийн яам, монголбанк хамтраад орон сууцны урт хугацааны хөтөлбөрийг батлах нь зөв юм. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, макро эдийн засгийн үзүүлэлтэд сөрөг нөлөе үзүүлэхгүй байх санхүүжилтийн схемийг боловсруулах хэрэггэй” гэв.

ЗЭЭЛДЭГЧИД ДААТГУУЛАХГҮЙ БАЙНА

Моргэйжийн зээлийг урт хугацаанд үргэлжлүүлэхийн тулд иргэн, арилжааны банк, ипотекийн корпорац, хөрөнгө оруулагч гэсэн гинжин хэлхээ бий болж байж, санхүүжилтийн эргэх холбоо бий болно. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, өмнөх зээлийн эргэн төлөлтөөр одоогийнхыг санхүүжүүлэн тасралтгүй эргэх механизм бий болсон цагт удаан үргэлжилнэ. Иргэдийн орон сууцны зээлийг Монголын ипотекийн корпорац (МИК) багцлан хөрөнгөөр баталгаажсан үнэт цаас болгож, хөрөнгө оруулагчдад арилждаг. Ингэхийн тулд зээлийн чанар баталгаатай байх ёстой. Тухайн орон сууц элэгдэл, эвдрэл гэмтэл багатай байх шаардлагатай учраас эд хөрөнгийн даатгал хийлгүүлдэг. Мөн зээлдэгч нь эрүүл саруул, ирэх 20 жил амьдрах багалгаатай байх эсэх нь тодорхойгүй учраас эрүүл мэндээ даатгуулдаг. Иргэд анх зээл авахдаа шаардлагатай даатгалд хамрагддаг хэрнээ дараагийн жилээс даатгуулахгүй байх тохиолдол их гарч байгаа аж. Даатгалгүй болох нь тухайн банкыг эрсдэлд оруулж, хөрөнгө оруулагчдыг хойш татаж байгаа гэсэн үг. Одоогоор ипотекийн зээлийн 0.4 хувийг чанаргүй зээл эзэлж байна. Орон сууцны даатгалын системийг хөгжүүлснээр бондын эргэлтийг өсгөж, ипотекийн зээлийн эх үүсвэрийг нэмэгдүүлэх боломжтой юм.

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