Засгаараа оролдсоны гор гарч эхэллээ

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Он гарсаар эрчээ аваад байсан ам.долларын ханш тавдугаар сараас эхлэн буурч, үүнийг дагаад эдийн засаг таатай үзүүлэлтүүд гарч эхэлсэн билээ. Гэвч энэ байдал түр зуурынх байсан бололтой. Учир нь, өчигдрийн байдлаар Монголбанкнаас зарласан ам.долларын албан ханш 2,460.55 нэгжид хүрсэн бол банкуудын зарах ханш 2,484 төгрөгтэй дүйцэх болжээ. Энэ нь Монгол төгрөгийн ам.доллартай эсрэгцэх ханш есдүгээр cap гарснаас хойш 30 нэгжээр уруудсан дүн юм.

Хамгийн гол нь, долларын ханш чангарах хэрээр бусад голлох валют ч өсөж, монголчуудын гадаад дахь худалдан авах чадвар тогтмол буурсаар байна. Тухайлбал, юаньтай харьцах төгрөгийн ханш 375.71, рубльтэй харьцах төгрөгийн ханш 42.69 нэгжид хүрч чангарчээ.

Өнгөрсөн долоо хоногийн сүүлчээр Монголбанкнаас зарлан явуулсан гадаад валютын дуудлага худалдаагаар банкнууд 2,460.81 төгрөгийн жигнэсэн дундаж ханштайгаар 59.6 сая ам.доллар худалдан авах, 367.29 төгрөгийн жигнэсэн дундаж ханштайгаар 14.0 сая юань худалдан авах санал ирүүлсэн байна. Монголбанк 2,460.50 төгрөгийн нэг ханшаар 26.7 сая ам.долларыг нийлүүлжээ.

Энэ нь мэдээж дундаж үзүүлэлт. Гэхдээ Монголбанкны албан тайлангаас харахад, арилжааны банкнуудаас своп, форвард хэлцэл байгуулах санал ганцыг ч ирүүлээгүй аж. Үүнийг олон талаар тайлбарлаж болох ч хамгийн бодит хариулт нь банкнуудын цаад болгоомжлол, эдийн засаг дахь ажиглалт гэдгийг санхүүгийн салбарынхан тайлбарлаж байна. Олон улсын нөхцөл байдал, шинжээчдийн дүгнэлтээс манайд үүсээд буй энэ нөхцөл байдал эдийн засгийн хямрал гэхээсээ илүүтэй улс төрийн тогтворгүй байдалтай шууд холбоотой ажээ.

Түүнчлэн энэ бүх байдлаас үүдэн он дуустал монголчууд бүсээ чангалж, хэрэглээгээ танах нөхцөл үүсэж болзошгүй гэв. Үүнийг есдүгээр сарын 7-нд Засгийн газар огцорсноос хойш ам.долларын албан ханш 13 гаруй нэгжээр чангарч, эсрэгээрээ төгрөгийн ханш суларснаар тайлбарлаж болно. Энэ бүхнээс гадна манай эдийн засагт бас нэгэн чухал үйл явдал болох цаг ойртжээ.

Дэлгэрүүлбэл, ОУВС-гаас манай улсын салбарын эрсдэл даах чадварыг бодитоор тогтоохын тулд арилжааны банкуудад өргөн хүрээний нарийвчилсан шалгалт хийж байгаа аж. Энэ шалгалтыг PWC компанийн Чех дэх оффис хийж байгаа ба шалгалтын гол зорилго нь банкуудын актив чанарын үнэлгээ / AQR/-r тодорхой болгох явдал юм байна.

Банкуудад үнэлгээ хийж буй PWC компани энэ оны арваннэгдүгээр сарын 30-н гэхэд эхний тайлангаа өгөхөөр болжээ. Гол нь тухайн үед энэ шалгалтын үр дүн ОУВС-гийн цаашдын ажиллагаатай шууд холбогдох ажээ.

Гэхдээ энд олон асуудал байгаа. Энэ талаар Монголбанкны Ерөнхийлөгч Н.Баяртсайхан ярихдаа Валютын сангийн ажлын хэсэг болон Монголбанкныхан активын үнэлгээ хийх зарчмын хоёр асуудалд тохиролцоонд хүрч чадахгүй байгаа. Тэрбээр “ОУВС-гийн зүгээс банкуудын зээлийн барьцаанд авсан мал, ашигт малтмалын лиценз зэргийг хүчингүйд тооцно гэсэн. Гэтэл манайхны хувьд зээлийн барьцааны үндсэн хэрэгсэл нь мал, ашигт малтмалын лиценз. Тиймээс ийм байдлаар актив үнэлгээ хийвэл арилжааны банкуудын үйл ажиллагаанд сөргөөр нөлөөлнө” гэжээ.

Тухайн үед буюу өнгөрсөн наймдугаар сард ийм асуудал өрнөж байсан. Гэхдээ манайхан яаж ийгээд зөвшилцөлд хүрсэн бололтой. Тодруулбал, Сангийн сайд байсан Б.Чойжилсүрэн зөвшилцөлд яг таг хүрсэн гээгүй ч “Малчдын малыг зээлийн барьцаанд тооцох тухайд зарчмын зөрүү үүсэж, зөвшилцөх зайлшгүй шаардлага гарч байсан. Гэхдээ бид ОУВС-тай зөвшилцсөн. Хайгуулын талбайн лицензийг барьцаалах нь эрсдэл өндөртэй гэж валютын сан анхааруулж байгаа. Харин A лицензийг бол зөвшөөрсөн” гэжээ.

Энэ мэтээр манай улс олон талаар ОУВС-тай тогтвортой ажиллахыг чармайж, үр дүн ажиглагдаж эхэлсэн. Харин Засгийн газар огцорсон тул валютын сан цаашид манайхтай зөвшилцсөн байр сууриа хэвээр хадгалах уу гэдэг дээр яах аргагүй асуудал үүсэх нь тодорхой.

Энэ талаар ОУВС-гийн Суурин төлөөлөгч Нейл Сакер ”Засгийн газрыг шинээр байгуулсны дараа бид эрх баригчидтай дахин хэлэлцэх болно. Тэр үеэр ОУВС-гийн хөтөлбөрийг цаашид хэрхэн үргэлжлүүлэх талаар ярилцана” гэв.

Өөрөөр хэлбэл, ОУВС-гийн үр өгөөжтэй төсөл энэ хэвээр цааш үргэлжлэх боломжгүй болсон гэдгийг энэхүү эрхэм хэллээ. Уг нь маш олон эдийн засагч, шинжээчийн амнаас энэ хөтөлбөр өнөөгийн Монголын эдийн засагт хамгийн тохиромжтой гэсэн үг гарч байсан. Тэгвэл шинэ Засгийн газар байдлыг дээрдүүлэх үү, дордуулах уу гэдгийг цаг хугацаа харуулж, харин горыг нь ард түмэн нуруундаа үүрэх маягтай боллоо.

Р.ТӨГС


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