Хөгжиж буй зах зээлээс зайлсхийж эхлэв

225337-08052018-1525742068-867565255-Zgm2016 оноос хойш хөгжиж буй зах зээлүүдийн бондын сан анх удаагаа хоёр долоо хоног дараалан уналаа. Үүнд ам.долларын өсөлт хүчтэй нөлөөлсөн ба компаниуд долларын өрийг эргэн төлж чадах эсэхдээ эргэлзэж эхэлсэнтэй холбоотой аж.

EPFR Global-ийн мэдэгдсэнээр тавдугаар сарын 2-ны байдлаар хөрөнгө оруулагчид дэлхийн хөгжиж буй зах зээлүүдийн бондын сангаас нийт нэг тэрбум ам.долларыг эргүүлэн татсан байна. Энэ нь хоёрдугаар сарын зах зээлийн савлагаанаас хойших хамгийн огцом уналт юм.

Мэдээллээс хархад гол шалтгаан нь ам.долларын ханш. Өнгөрсөн дөрөвдүгээр сараас хойш ам.долларын ханш хөгжингүй орнуудын валютын эсрэг 2.7 хувиар өссөн бол JPMorgan- ын EM валют ам.долларын эсрэг 4.2 хувиар буурлаа.

Уг өсөлт нь хөгжиж буй зах зээл дэх ам.долларын зээлтэй компаниудын зардлыг нэмж буй юм. Аргентинийн төв банк ам.долларын эсрэг песогийн уналтыг сааруулах зорилгоор өнгөрсөн пүрэв гарагт зээлийн хүүгээ дахин нэмж, долоо хоног хүрэхгүй хугацаанд хоёр дахь удаагаа гурван хувиар өсгөжээ. Дөрөвдүгээр сарын эхнээс песогийн ханш 9.4 хувиар буурч, нөлөөлөх уналт нь өнгөрсөн долоо хоногт ажиглагдав.

Түүнчлэн энэ хугацаанд ам.долларын эсрэг Бразилын реал 6.3 хувиар суларсан бол Мексикийн песо 4.6 хувиар унажээ. Харин АНУ-ын зээлийн хүүгийн өсөлт хөгжиж буй орнуудад өөр нэгэн ширүүхэн давлагааг чиглүүлээд байна. АНУ-ын Сангийн яамны 10 жилийн хугацаатай үнэт цаасны өгөөж энэ онд 55 нэгж буюу 2.95 хувиар өсөж, дөрөвдүгээр сарын сүүлээр гурван хувь шүргэсэн. Ам.долларын өндөр ханш хөгжиж буй зах зээлийн долларын бондын үнэ цэнийг бууруулдаг ба хөрөнгө оруулагчдад удаан хугацаанд ашиггүй болж ирдэг.

“2017 онд хөгжиж буй орнуудад бүх зүйл эерэг байсан бол АНУ-ын Сангийн яамны үнэт цаасны өгөөж гурван хувиар чангарсны дараа хүн бүр санаа зовниж эхэллээ” хэмээн UBS Asset Management-ийн хөгжиж буй зах зээлийн өр хариуцсан дарга Федерико Каун хэллээ. Тэрбээр “Хэрэв үнэт цаасны өгөөж буурвал хөрөнгө оруулагчид эргээд хөгжиж буй орнууд руу хандана” хэмээн тодотгосон аж.

Ам.долларын өсөлтөөр дотоод валютын хөрөнгө оруулалтын үнэ цэнэ буурсан ч дэлхийн хөгжиж буй зах зээлийн хувьцааны сангууд харьцангуй сайн байна. Уг сангууд нийт 333 сая ам.долларын ашигтай ажилласан ч 2018 оны эхнээс буурсан дүр зурагтай байна. Энэ оны нэгдүгээр сард орлогын урсгал нь 5.3 тэрбум ам.доллар байв.

FTSE-гийн хөгжиж буй зах зээлүүдийн хувьцааны индекс нэгдүгээр сартай харьцуулахад 11 хувиар унасан ба үүний нэг шалтгаан нь бүрэлдэхүүн компаниудынх нь ам.доллараар үнэлсэн үнэлгээ буурсантай холбоотой юм. Энэ уналтаар уг индексийн энэ оны турш босгосон өсөлт эргээд тэглэгдсэн аж. EPFR-ийн өгөгдлөөс харахад хөрөнгө оруулагчид өнгөрсөн долоо хоногт Латин Америкийн үнэт цаасанд төвлөрсөн сангуудаас 129 ам.доллар буцаан татаж, хоёр дахь долоо хоногт уналт харууллаа. Гэсэн хэдий ч зарим хөрөнгө оруулагчид уг бүс нутагт эерэг хүлээлттэй байж, эдийн засгийн өндөр өсөлт хүлээж буй. “Бразилд маш чухал сонгууль ойртож байна. Аргентин өндөр хэлбэлзэлтэй байгаа бол Мексикт сонгуулиуд ойртож байна” хэмээн Pacific Life Fund Advisors- ийн хөрөнгө хуваарилалт хариуцсан дарга Макс Гоман хэллээ. Тэрбээр “Эдгээр нь бүгд маш их савалгаа үүсгэх ч одоогийн суурь дүр зургийг өөрчлөхгүй” хэмээн онцоллоо.

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