П.Товуудорж: Багануурын төсөл зогслоо гэхэд Монголчууд өөрсдөө станц барина гэдэг бол үлгэр

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Дэлхийн эрчим хүчний зөвлөлийн Монгол дахь зохицуулагч П.Товуудоржтой ярилцлаа.

-Монгол Улсын эрчим хүчний системийн өнөөгийн нөхцөл байдлыг судлаачийн хувьд хэрхэн хардаг вэ?

-Хараахан бие дааж чадаагүй байна. Дэлхийн эрчим хүчний зөвлөл өнгөрсөн 2017 онд гишүүн 125 орныхоо эрчим хүчний аюулгүй байдлын индексийг гаргасан. Тухайн индексээр Монгол Улс 114 дүгээр байранд жагсаж “D” үнэлгээ авсан. Хямралын өмнөх төвшинд очсон гэж дүгнэж болно. Дэлхийн жишигт цахилгаан станцуудын насжилт 30-40 жил байдаг. Манай “ТЭЦ II” 60, “ТЭЦ III” 50, “ТЭЦ IV” 35 жилийн настай. Бүгдийнх нь насжилт дуусчихсан гэсэн үг.

Эрчим хүчний шугам сүлжээнүүдийн ихэнх нь 1970-1980 оны хороонд баригдсан. Эрчим хүчний технологиудын насжилт хамгийн чухал үзүүлэлт учраас бүгд асуудал дагуулах хэмжээнд очсон гэж дүгнэсэн. Мөн эрчим хүчний хэрэглээнийхээ 20 хувийг хоёр хөршөөсөө хангаж байгаа, эх үүсвэр төрөлжөөгүй зэрэг үзүүлэлт манай улсыг хойгуур жагсахад нөлөөлсөн. Нөгөөтээгүүр Монгол Улс хамгийн хүйтэн уур амьсгалтай орон. Өвлийн оргил ачааллын үеэр салбарын чадварлаг инженерүүдийн нуруун дээр л тогтож байна гэдэгтэй миний хувьд санал нийлдэг.

Технологийн норм, нормативын дагуу тооцож үзэхэд гарцаагүй нүүрсний цахилгаан станц шинээр байгуулах шаардлагатай. Мөн систем нар, салхи, усан цахилгаан станц, . том чадлын хуримтлуур зэрэг олон төрлийн эх үүсвэртэй байж бие даасан найдвартай горимоор ажиллаж чадна.

-Цаашид өвлийн өндөр ачааллын үед өнөөгийн нөхцөл байдлаар ажиллах нь хэр оновчтой вэ. Өнгөрсөн өвлийн их хүйтэн дулааны цахилгаан станцуудыг бүх чадлаараа ажиллахад хүргэсэн?

-Мэргэжлийн бус хүмүүс “ТЭЦ II” 60 жил ажиллаж болоод байна. Тэгэхээр “ТЭЦ IV” ч бас урсгал засвараар 60 жил ажиллаж болох юм биш үү гэж ойлгож, асууж магадгүй. Гэхдээ аливаа тоноглолын ажиллах цаг гүйцсэн тохиолдолд зайлшгүй шинэчлэх шаардлага байдаг гэдгийг мэргэжлийн бус хүмүүс ч ойлгоно гэж бодож байна.

Өнгөрсөн өвөл манай эрчим хүчний хэрэглээ түүхэндээ дээд хэмжээндээ буюу 1081 МВт-д хүрсэн. Цахилгаан станцууд бүх хүчин чадлаараа ажиллаж, шаардлагатай тохиолдолд ОХУ-аас импортын эрчим хүч авч өвлийг өнтэй давсан. Энэ үеэр бэлтгэл зуух турбингүй ажилласан. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, гэмтэл саатал гарсан болон ОХУ-аас авах цахилгаан саатсан үед нөхөх эх үүсвэр байхгүй нөхцөлд ажилласан гэсэн үг л дээ.

-Тэгвэл цаашид өнгөрсөн өвлийнх шиг эрсдэлтэй горимоор ажилласаар байх уу гэдэг асуудал тулгараад байна. Хойд хөршийн хоригт ороод буй Эгийн голын усан цахилгаан станцаас гадна Багануур, Шивээ-Овоогийн мега төслүүд яригдаж байгаа. Энэ төслүүдийн ирээдүйг эрчим хүчний инженерийн хувьд хэрхэн хардаг вэ?

-Эрчим хүч бол эдийн засгийн хөгжлийг хөтлөгч суурь дэд бүтэц юм. Эрчим хүч түрүүлж хөгжиж байж дараа дараачийн хүнд, хөнгөн аж үйлдвэр байгуулах суурь тавигдан эдийн засгаа тэлэх боломж нээгдэнэ. Өнөөдөр эрчим хүчний томоохон төслүүд яагаад явахгүй байгааг өөрийнхөө зүгээс тайлбарлах гэж оролдъё. Томоохон төслийг явуулах үндсэн гурван санхүүжилтийн зарчим байдаг.

Нэгдүгээрт, улсын төсвийн санхүүжилт. Төр гадаадаас зээл, тусламж авч амжилттай хэрэгжүүлсэн жижиг төслүүд бий. Харин том чадлын цахилгаан станцын төсөл хэрэгжүүлсэн туршлага манайд алга. Эдийн засгийн боломж бололцоо ч хомс байлаа. Эрчим хүчний салбарын төсөл харьцангуй өндөр дүнтэй хөрөнгө оруулалт шаарддаг учраас олон тэрбум ам.долларын бонд босгоод ч томоохон төслүүдээ хөдөлгөж хүчирсэнгүй.

Хоёрт, корпорацийн санхүүжилтээр Монголд амжилттай хэрэгжсэн төслөөр 40 сая ам.долларын өртөг бүхий Ухаа худгийн 18 МВт-ын цахилгаан станцыг дурдаж болно. Гурав дахь нь сүүлийн үед бүх төсөл хөтөлбөр дээр яригдаж буй концессын гэрээ. “ТЭЦ V”, Багануур, Шивээ-Овоогийн эрчим хүчний төслүүд концессын гэрээгээр санхүүжихээр болсон. Концессын гэрээгээр хөрөнгө оруулагч тал хэдэн хуудас гэрээ, тусгай зөвшөөрөл бариад банкнаас зээл авч төсөл хэрэгжүүлэхээр болдог.

Гэтэл зээл өгч байгаа банк тухайн төсөл хэрэгжих улсын төр засгийн бодлого тогтвортой эсэх, нэг кВт.ц цахилгаанаа хэдээр худалдах зэргийг харгалзан үздэг. Ингээд концессын төслийг хэрэгжүүлэгч нь санхүүжүүлэгч талынхаа шаардлагыг хангахгүй байгаа юм.

-Таны яриад байгаа хүндрэлүүдийн хамгийн ойрхон жишээгээр “Багануурын цахилгааны станц” төслийг дурдаж болох юм. 2015 онд концессын гэрээг үзэглэсэн байдаг. Гэтэл өнөөдрийг хүртэл хөдөлсөнгүй. Төр засгийн бодлого шийдвэр тогтворгүй байгаатай холбоотой гэж харж болох уу. Зарим эх сурвалжийн зүгээс БНХАУ-ын компани төслийн хөрөнгө оруулагчаар шалгарсныг шүүмжлэх боллоо. Эрчим хүчний салбарынхны зүгээс яагаад Багануурт цахилгаан станц барих нь зөв гэж үздэг юм бэ?

-Улаанбаатар хотод тэр дундаа, уурхайн аман дээр шинэ эрчим хүчний эх үүсвэр барих зайлшгүй байгаа юм. Багануурын цахилгаан станцын гэрээг байгуулалцсан хүмүүсийн нэг нь би. Тухайн үед “ТЭЦ V’’-ын төсөл урагшгүй болсон. Бид нүүрсээр баялаг, хөгжиж буй орны хувьд нүүрсний цахилгаан станц барих нь өртөг бага. Цахилгаан станцад нүүрснээс гадна ус хэрэгтэй. Хямд эрчим хүч үйлдвэрлэхийн тулд уурхайн аман дээр байгуулах нь ашигтай.

Энэ утгаар нь Багануурт цахилгаан станц барих шийдвэр аль 1985-1986 онд гарсан байдаг. Яг өнөөдрийн байдлаар Монголд 700 МВт-ын том чадлын цахилгаан станцыг барих хүний нөөц болоод хөрөнгө мөнгөний чадал байхгүй гэдэгтэй бүгд санал нийлнэ. Тэгэхээр хэн барих уу гэвэл, хөрөнгө оруулагч талаар бариулж таарна. Хөрөнгө оруулагч тал хэн байх нь хамаагүй. Япончууд, хятадууд, солонгосчууд, оросууд аль нь ч байж болно. Ганц Багануур биш бусад цахилгаан станцуудын төсөл дээр энэ асуудал яригдана.

Багануурын төслийг хүчээр зогсоолоо гэж бодоход дараагийн станцыг монголчууд өөрсдөө барина гэдэг бол үлгэр. Харин концессын гэрээн дээр баригдсаны дараа ашиглалт, үйл ажиллагааг нь монгол инженерүүд авч явна гэдэг заалт байгаа. Мэдээж, хөрөнгө оруулагч талаас удирдлагын багт төлөөллөө оруулах нь ойлгомжтой.

-Монгол Улсын эрчим хүчний бие даасан, хараат бус байдал хямралын өмнөх төвшин гэсэн үнэлгээ авсан байна. Тэгэхээр Багануурын цахилгаан станц баригдсанаар эрчим хүчний бие даасан, хараат бус байдлыг хангахад ямар нөлөө үзүүлэх юм бол?

-Манай  эрчим хүчний салбарын нийт суурилагдсан хүчин 1,200 МВт орчим. Хэрэглээ нь үл ялиг бага. Бидний зүгээс Багануурын станцыг 2023-2024 онд ашиглалтад орно гэж тооцсон. Тэр үед манай нийт хэрэглээ 2,000 МВт орчимд хүрэхээр тооцсон. Тухайлбал, Оюутолгой гүний уурхай ашиглалтад ороход 340 МВт-ын ачаалал шууд үүснэ. Чойрыг тойрсон цементийн үйлдвэрүүдэд 80 орчим МВт-ын хэрэгцээ бий.

УБТЗ-ын шугамд цахилгаанжуулалт хийвэл 100 МВт-ын эрэлт нэмэгдэнэ. Энэ мэтчилэн ирээдүйд өсөн нэмэгдэх хэрэгцээгээ тооцож харах хэрэгтэй байгаа юм. Тэгэхгүй өнөөдөр 1,081 МВт-ын эрэлт байна гэдэг байдлаас л хараад байна. Ирээдүйд эрчим хүчний эх үүсвэргүй хэвээрээ байвал төлөвлөж буй том төслүүд хөдлөх нөхцөл бүрдэхгүй. Нөгөө талаар тогтвортой ажиллагааны горим алдагдана гэж эрсдэл байдаг. Монгол Улсын эрчим хүчний систем 1995 онд зургаан удаа тэг зогссон байдаг юм.

Тэр үед манай системийн ачаалал 400 гаруй МВт байсан. “ТЭЦ IV” 100 МВт-ын нэг блок зогсоход систем тэр чигээрээ таг суусан. Яг үүнтэй адилхан өнөөдөр оргил ачааллын үед “ТЭЦ IV’’-ийн нэг блок зогсоход систем бүхэлдээ сууна. Бидний өөдрөг төсөөллөөр 2030 онд манай эрчим хүчний хэрэглээ 3,000 МВт хүрэхээр харагдаж байгаа.

-Эдийн засгийн үр өгөөж талаасаа 700 МВт-ын том чадлын цахилгаан станц ашигтай гэж үзсэн үү?

-Цахилгаан станцын төсөлд эдийн засгийн үр өгөөж маш чухал үзүүлэлт. Цахилгаан станцын хүчин чадал томрох тусмаа барих өртөг буурч, үр ашиг нь нэмэгддэг. Өнөөдөр эрчим хүчний салбар ДНБ-ий гурван хувийг үйлдвэрлэж байна. Тэгвэл экспортын чанартай том чадлын станцууд ашиглалтад орсноор 30 хувьд хүргэх боломжтой. Хэрэв 30 хувьд хүрвэл Оюутолгой, Эрдэнэттэй дүйцэхүйц орлого оруулах нөөц байгаа юм.

-Багануурын станцын төслийн нийт өртөг нэг тэрбум ам.доллар. Барих ашиглах шилжүүлэх хугацаа нь 25 жил. Өртөг, хугацаа хоёрыг ямар үндэслэлээр тооцож гаргадаг вэ?

-Дөрвөн жил нь барих, 21 жил нь ашиглах хугацаа. Олон улсын жишгээр эрчим хүчний үйлдвэрийг 15 жилийн дотор өртгөө нөхөх ёстой гэж үздэг. Тэгэхээр эхний 15 жил хөрөнгө оруулалтаа нөхнө. Сүүлийн зургаан жилд нь эрсдэл хүлээж, төсөл хэрэгжүүлсний ашгаа олно гэж тооцсон байх.

-Концессын гэрээний хөрөнгө оруулагчийг олон улсад нээлттэй зарлаж байгаа. Хамгийн бага үнийн саналыг аль улсын компаниуд санал болгож байгаа вэ?

-Олон улсын стандартын дагуу нэг шаардлага тавигддаг. Технологийн хувьд Хятадынх Европынхоос хямд. Чанарын асуудал ч яригдана. Концесс хэрэгжүүлэгч тал 21 жилийн ашиг харж байгаа учраас чанарыг харьцангуй асуудал гэж болно.

-Монгол Улс асар их эрчим хүчний нөөцтэй. Эрчим хүчээ Азийн эрчим хүчний супер сүлжээгээр дамжуулан экспортлох том зорилго тавьсан. Багануур, Шивээ-Овоо-гийн том чадлын цахилгаан станцын төслүүд Азийн эрчим хүчний супер сүлжээнд холбогдоход гол үүрэг гүйцэтгэх үү?

-Анх Азийн эрчим хүчний супер сүлжээ гэж ярихад мөрөөдөл төдий сонсогдсон байж магадгүй. Тэгвэл өнөөдрийн түвшинд бодитоор хэрэгжих нөхцөл бүрдээд байгаа юм, Энэ талаарх бүс нутгийн орнуудын санал санаачилга өсөн нэмэгдэж байна. ОХУ олон улсаас үзүүлж буй хоригтой холбогдуулан эдийн засгийн бодлогоо алс дорнод руу тэлэх болсон. Тус улсын эрчим хүчний нийт суурилагдсан хүчин 268 мянган МВт. Сибирийн бүс нутагт 68 мянга нь байдаг. Илүүдэл 20 мянган МВт цахилгаан эрчим хүчийг Зүүн Хойд Азийн орнууд руу экспортлох сонирхолтой байгаа.

Тэгвэл БНХАУ-ын дарга Ши Жинпинь 2015 онд НҮБ-ын Тогтвортой хөгжлийн чуулган дээр дэлхийн эрчим хүчний нэгдсэн сүлжээ байгуулах санаачилга гаргаж, хэрэгжүүлэгч байгууллагаа зарласан. Энэ байгууллагын Зүүн Хойд Азийн эрчим хүчний сүлжээ байгуулах санаачилгаар ОХУ, БНХАУ, БНСУ, Япон Улсуудын хувийн хэвшлийнхэн 2016 онд хамтран ажиллахаа баталгаажуулж гарын үсэг зурсан. БНСУ-ын Ерөнхийлөгч сүүлийн үед эрчим хүчний салбартаа либерал бодлого баримтлах болсон.

Харин Монгол Улсын Засгийн газраас энэ төслийг анхнаас нь дэмжиж, Азийн хөгжлийн банкны санхүүжилтээр Зүүн Хойд Азийн эрчим хүчний нэгдсэн сүлжээний зураглалыг гаргах судалгаа хийгээд явж байна. Судалгаа ирэх оны тавдугаар сард дуусаж, Засгийн газарт хүлээлгэн өгөх юм. Багануур, Шивээ-Овоогийн том чадлын цахилгаан станцын төслүүд хэрэгжсэнээр бүс нутгийн хүрээнд эрчим хүч экспортлох боломжийг бүрдүүлэх ач холбогдолтой. Эдгээр нь бидний хувьд том төсөл боловч бүс нутгийн хэрэгцээний нэг хувийг ч хангахгүй. Тэгэхээр эрэлт хаа хаанаа байна гэсэн үг.

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