Банкуудад хэр их хөрөнгө дутсан, төрөөс ямар арга хэмжээ авах вэ

Сүүлийн үед олны анхаарлыг хамгийн их татсан сэдэв бол Монголын арилжааны банкуудад дутагдаж байгаа гэгдэж буй 513 тэрбум төгрөгийн хөрөнгийн зузаатгалын асуудал юм. Монголбанкнаас энэ зузаатгалыг хийхээр төлөвлөсөн нь маргаан дагуулаад байгаа. Зузаатгалыг хэрхэн, яаж хэрэгжүүлэх нь тодорхой бус байгаа нь бүр ч их асуудал үүсгэж буй аж. УИХ-ын зарим гишүүнээс эцсийн дүндээ татвар төлөгчдийн халааснаас гарах энэ хөрөнгийг эрсдэлд орсон банкуудыг аврахад зарцуулж байна хэмээн эсэргүүцэж байгааг буруутгах аргагүй юм.

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Саяхан Монгол­банкнаас хийсэн “Банкны дахин хөрөнгөжүүлэлтийн тухай хуулийн төсөл” хэвлэлийн хурлыг сонирхож үзвэл Монголбанкны ерөнхийлөгч Н.Баярт­сайханы ярианаас нэгэн зөрүүтэй мэдээлэл анхаарал татлаа. Н.Баяртсайхан гуай олон улсад нэр хүнд бүхий аудитын компани болох PWC-гийн хийсэн шалгалтаар манай банкуудад 513 тэрбум төгрөгийн өөрийн хөрөнгийн дутагдал байна гэсэн дүгнэлт гарсан. Мөн ОУВС (үүнийг баталгаажуулж) манай банкуудад ДНБ-ий 1.9 хувьтай тэнцэх (513 тэрбум нь манай ДНБ-ий 1.9 хувьтай тэнцэж буй) хэмжээний өөрийн хөрөнгө дутагдаж буйг зарласан хэмээсэн юм.  Гэтэл үнэндээ ОУВС-гаас Монголын банкуудад 784 сая ам.долларын ойролцоогоор 1.9 их наяд төгрөг, манай ДНБ-ий долоон хувьтай тэнцэх хэмжээний өөрийн хөрөнгийн дутагдал байна гэж үзэж буй аж.  Хоёр өөр эх сурвалжаас хоёр өөр тоо, дүнгийн зөрүү их том, 1.38 их наяд төгрөг. Яагаад?

Өнгөрсөн намрын өдрүүдэд ОУВС-гийн санаачилгаар “PWC” компани манай банкуудад AQR-Банкны активын үнэлгээ хийсэн. Үүний үр дүнгийн талаар Монголбанкнаас ямар нэгэн мэдээлэл хийлгүй байсаар өдийг хүрсэн.  Харин олон улсын санхүүгийн нэр хүнд бүхий хэвлэлүүдээр Монголын банкнуудад хийсэн активын үнэлгээний талаар нэлээд тодорхой мэдээллүүд гарсан. Монголын арилжааны банкуудад нийт 784 сая ам.долларын өөрийн хөрөнгө дутагдаж буй, мөн TARP (Troubled asset relief program) буюу банкны эрсдэлд орсон активыг аврах, чөлөөлөх, нэг ёсны bailout-аварлын тусгай хөтөлбөр хэрэгжүүлэх шаардлагатай г зарласан юм. ХХБ-ны ерөнхийлөгч байсан Рандолф Коппа энэ асуудлаар “Активын үнэлгээ нь зах зээлд амьдрах чадваргүй жижиг банкуудыг цөөлөх зорилготой байсан” хэмээсэн байдаг.

Экспертүүдийн санал, AQR анализыг шинжлэн үзэхэд ОУВС-ийн санаачилгаар хийсэн энэ активын үнэлгээ нэртэй банкны эрсдэл даах чанарын шалгалт (international-quality stress testing) нь банкуудын эрсдэл, активын чанарыг тогтоохоос гадна Монголын арилжааны банкуудад бугшсан нууцлаг байдлыг ил болгох нэгэн зорилготой байсан. Үүндээ банкуудын активын бодит үнэлгээг тогтоох, зээл олголтын явц (related lending, lending procedure), хэт өндөр хувьтай байгаа чанаргүй зээлийн асуудлын учрыг олох, банкинд хийж буй гүйлгээнүүд нь олон улсын стандарт, мөнгө угаалттай тэмцэх журамтай нийцэж буй эсэхийг тогтоох ажлуудыг хамруулан гүйцэтгэсэн аж. Олон улсын шинжээчдийн үзэж буйгаар Монголын банкны зах зээлд олон улсын тоглогч, зээлдэгч байхгүй, орж ирж чадахгүй байгаа асуудал, арилжааны банкууд цөөн тооны гэр бүл, цөөн хувьцаа эзэмшигчдийн гарт төвлөрсөн байдал нь зөвхөн банкны салбар төдийгүй Монголын эдийн засагт ихэд сөргөөр нөлөөлж буй аж.

ОУВС манай арилжааны банкуудад нийт активынх нь 7-8 хувьтай тэнцэх хэмжээний өөрийн хөрөнгийн зузаатгал буюу 1.9 их наяд төгрөг шаардлагатай гэж үзэж буй нь банкуудын эрсдэлийн төвшин өндөр гэж дүгнэж буй хэрэг. Харин Монголбанк тооцоолохдоо 513 тэрбум төгрөг шаардлагатай гэж үзсэн, зөрүү нь нэлээн том ойролцоогоор 1.4 их наяд төгрөг. Хоёр өөр эх сурвалж хоёр өөр тоо.

Монголбанкны ил тод бус нууцлаг байдал, асуудлыг хаалттай хэлэлцэх сонирхол, тодорхой бус, хагас дутуу мэдээллээс харахад  банкны мэдээллийг ил тод байлгах зорилгоор хийсэн AQR-активын үнэлгээ төдийлөн үр дүнгээ өгөөгүй бололтой. Ямартай ч ОУВС-гийн AQR-активын үнэлгээнээс өгөгдсөн зөвлөмжүүдээр бол манай төв банк эрсдэлд орсон арилжааны банкууддаа TARP буюу  эрсдэлд орсон активыг худалдан авах эсвэл банкууд зузаатгалыг өөр эх сурвалжаас олох тусгай хөтөлбөр хэрэгжүүлэх шаардлагатай байгаа. Хөтөлбөрийг энэ ондоо багтаан хэрэгжүүлж дуусах, банкуудыг цэгцлэх үүргийг хүлээсэн ажээ.

Банкууд өнөөдөр эрсдэлд орсон нь зээлийн хүү хэт өндөр байсаар байгаатай холбоотой.  Төр банкуудад тусална гэнэ, тусалсаар ч ирсэн аварсаар ч ирсэн. Харин энэ удаа зээлийн хүүг бууруулах хуулийг баталж банкинд ч мөн ард түмэндээ ч тусалбал яасан юм бол оо.

Эх сурвалж: “Зууны мэдээ” сонин


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