Төсвийн цоорхой жил хагасын дараа таныг “торгодог”

DТөсвийн цоорхой зузаарахын хэрээр иргэний хэтэвч нимгэрдэг. Төсвийн алдагдал хоёр, гурван улирлын хоцрогдолтой таны халааснаас сэмхэн мөнгө суйлж байна.

Монгол Улсын 2000 оноос хойших үнийн өсөлт болон төсвийн алдагдлын харилцан хамаарлыг (график 1) та харж байна. Сүүлийн 20 орчим жилд айл өрхийн хаалгыг урилгагүй тогшдог үнийн өсөлт төсвийн алдагдлыг дагасан байгаа биз. Тухайлбал, 2000 онд манай сангийн бодлогын алдагдал 77 тэрбум төгрөгт хүрсэн. Энэ нь одоогийн төсвийн алдагдалтай харьцуулахад хамаагүй бага дүн боловч 20 орчим жилийн өмнөх ДНБ-ий 15.8 хувийг бүрдүүлсэн байна. Ийнхүү хагас их наяд төгрөг ч хүрдэггүй тарчигхан төсвийн алдагдал тэлэх үеэр үнийн өсөлт хоёр оронтой тоог хэдийн давж, 12 хувийг шүргэсэн байна.

Ингэснээр 2-3 улирлын дараа буюу 2000 оны сүүлч, 2001 оны эхээр талхны үнэ 18 төгрөгөөр нэмэгдэж, 266 төгрөгт хүрсэн бол хонь болон үхрийн махны жижиглэнгийн үнэ 80 төгрөгөөр өсөж, 1181 төгрөгт хүрчээ.

Дөрвөн ам бүлтэй нэг өрх өдөрт дунджаар нэг талх худалдан авдаг гэж тооцвол 18 төгрөгийн үнийн өсөлт иргэний халаасыг жилд ойролцоогоор 6000 төгрөгөөр торгосон байна. Талхны үнийн өсөлт ийм байгаа бол махны үнийг харцгаая. Статистикийн байгууллагын тооцоогоор хот суурин газрын нэг өрх сард дунджаар 15 килограмм мах хэрэглэдэг

Тэгвэл үнэ нь 80 төгрөгөөр нэмэгдсэнээр махны сарын хэрэглээгээ 16 мянган төгрөгөөр хангадаг байсан нэг өрх 18 мянган төгрөг төлнө гэсэн үг. Ингэснээр зөвхөн махны худалдан авалтад гэхэд инфляц иргэний халаасыг жилд дунджаар 15 мянган төгрөгөөр цоолсон гэж “тооцож” болно.

Төсвийн алдагдал инфляцыг хөтөлдгийг статистикийн байгууллагын судалгаагаар тогтоосон. Тодруулбал, төсвийн алдагдал бий болсноос хойш хоёр болон гурван улирлын дараа инфляц өсөж эхэлдэг байна.

Төсвийн алдагдал энэ онд хоёр их наяд орчим төгрөгт хүрэх төлөвтэй

Харин төсөв алдагдалгүй ашигтай гарахад инфляц тогтворжих хандлага ажиглагддаг гэж үндэсний статистикийн хорооны судлаачид тэмдэглэжээ. Түүнчлэн ДНБ-д эзлэх төсвийн алдагдал нэг хувиар өсөхөд гурван сарын дараа инфляц дунжаар 0.4 хувиар эрчимждэг байна. Монгол Улс макро эдийн засгийн шүдний өвчин болсон төсвийн алдагдалтай сүүлийн 20 орчим жил нүүр тулсаар ирлээ. Тодруулбал, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2018 оноос бусад жилд Монгол Улсын төсвийн бодлого тогтмол алдагдал хүлээсэн. Төр хөнжлийнхөө хэрээр хөлөө жийлгүй, олсноосоо илүү зарцуулж, тэтгэвэр, тэтгэмж, “эх орны хишиг” зэрэг олон хэлбэрээр их хэмжээний мөнгө гадагшлуулсан нь эргээд зах зээлд мөнгөн тэмдэгтийн ханш унаж, өргөн хэрэглээний бараа бүтээгдэхүүний үнэ өсөх нэг шалтгаан болдог нь энэ юм.

Төсвийн орлогоосоо түрүүлсэн зарлагатай төсөв нь инфляцыг өдөөж, иргэдийн хэтэвч дэх мөнгөний үнэ цэнд дарамт болдог байна. Ер нь төсвийн цоорхойгоос үүссэн макро эдийн засгийн бэрхшээл сорилт үүгээр дуусахгүй бөгөөд тогтоосон таазандаа хэдийн тулчихаад буй өрийн дарамт ч сангийн бодлогын алдагдлаас үүдэлтэй.

Төсвийн орлого нэмэгдсэнээр 2018 онд Монгол Улсын төсөв алдагдалтай бус ашигтай гарсан. Өнгөрсөн оны урьдчилсан гүйцэтгэлээр улсын төсөв 12 тэрбум төгрөгийн ашигтай гарсныг Сангийн сайд Ч.Хүрэлбаатар мэдээлсэн. Гэвч баярлах болоогүй. Учир нь өмнөх оныг 10 гаруй тэрбум төгрөгийн ашгаар үдсэн биднийг энэ оны эцэс гэхэд хоёр их наяд орчим төгрөгийн талийсан алдагдал хүлээж байгаа. Ийм их хэмжээний алдагдалтай төсвийг Монгол Улс баталчихсан нь харамсалтай.

Хэрэглээний үнийн индекс болох инфляц нь нэг талаас бизнесийн идэвхжил, макро эдийн засгийн өсөлт эрчимжиж буйг илэрхийлдэг. Гэхдээ энэ үзүүлэлт иргэдийн нуруун дээр үнийн өсөлт, хэрэглээний таналт дагуулдгийг санах хэрэгтэй.

Эцэст нь, төсөв, төлбөрийн тэнцэл зэрэг макро эдийн засгийн үзүүлэлтийг надад хамаагүй хэмээн манай цөөнгүй иргэн чихнийхээ хажуугаар өнгөрөөдөг. Тэгвэл жил бүрийн намарт чуулганы танхимд маргаан дагуулдаг төсвийн бодлого, түүний цоорхой нь хэдхэн сарын дараа таны халааснаас мөнгө суйлж, талхны тань талыг булаасаар байна.

Г.Байгал

Засгийн газрын мэдээ


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