​Арваннэгэн сарын улс төр

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Улс төрийн хүрээнийхэн нэг асуулттай болжээ. Арваннэгэн сард юу болох вэ гэж. Сургаар хоёр таамаг явна. Эхнийх нь У.Хүрэлсүхийн Засгийн газрыг огцруулах. Хоёр дахь нь, УИХ-ын ээлжит бус сонгууль хийх.

1.

УИХ-ын ээлжит сонгууль болоход есөн сар үлдэж. 1992 оноос хойшхи Монголын улс төрийн түүхэнд сонгуулиас хамгийн багадаа жилийн өмнө засгаа сольсон түүх нэн ховор. Гэвч гуравдугаар ээлжээ хоолонд оруулах, эс бөгөөс дангаараа биш юмаа гэхэд хамтарч дахиад дөрвөн жил засаглахын төлөө улс төр хийх, үгүй нь МАН-ын л сонголт.  “Сонгуулийн Засгийн газар” байгуулаад зүтгэхэд МАН-д хугацаа үлдсэнгүй гэхээр бас үгүй. С.Баяр ээлжит сонгуулиас долоон сарын өмнө Ерөнхий сайдаар томилогдож, УИХ-ын 36 суудлаа  2008 оны сонгуулиар 45  болгож байсан түүх энэ намд бий. Одоо тийм бие даасан лидер МАН-д байхгүй нь хяслантай. Улс төрийн үзэгдлийн лидер байх ч, тэр нь Ерөнхий сайд болох хэмжээний нийгмийн хүлээлтэд тэнцэхгүй.

2.

УИХ-ын ээлжит бус сонгуулийн тухайд эрх баригч МАН-д “гал”-тай сэдэв. Намын бүлэг дотроо гэхэд, улс төрд цааш явах нэр, нүүртэй гэж буй хэсэг нь ээлжит бус сонгуулийг эргэцүүлнэ.  Биологийн нас залуу ч, “улс төрийн нас, нөөц” нь энэ парламентаар шавхагдсан гишүүд бол эсэргүүцнэ. Тэд дахиад есөн сар халдашгүй эрхтэйгээ явахыг хүснэ. Энэ дундаас зөв шийдлийг олж гаргах, PR-аа онож хийх үгүй нь МАН-ын л улс төрийн шийдвэр юм.

3.

Гэхдээ Засгийн газрыг огцруулахаас ч том улс төр арваннэгдүгээр сард үнэхээр болно. Тэр нь Үндсэн хуулийн санал асуулга. УИХ-ын ээлжит бус сонгуулиа хамт хийвэл бүр том улс төр болно. Энэ хувилбар МАН-д ашигтай бөгөөд ээлжит бус сонгуулиар үзүүлж болох амжилт нь 2020 оны ээлжит сонгуулийнхаас илүү байх боломж ихтэй. Тэр тухай энд бичихгүй.

Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийн санал асуулга ч дангаараа том улс төр. Өөрчлөлтийг “дэмжинэ, дэмжихгүй” гэх хоёр сонголтын нэгийг асууна. Санал асуулга унавал буюу ард түмний олонхи Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийг дэмжихгүй гэж гарвал ганц МАН-д гэхгүй, хожмоо Монголд халтай байж мэдэх их улс төр өрнөнө.

Монголчууд анх 1945 онд тусгаар тогтнолын санал асуулга явуулсныг хүн бүр мэднэ. Энэ удаагийн санал асуулга улсын тусгаар тогтнолтой дүйхгүй ч,  агуулгаараа ардчилал, эрх эрх чөлөө, тэр дундаа парламентын ардчилалтайгаа үлдэх үгүйг шийдэх том сорилго болж мэдэх. Учир юу вэ гэхээр, Ерөнхийлөгчийн санал болгосноор “Ерөнхийлөгчийн засаглалтай байх уу, парламентын засаглалтай байх уу” гэдгийг асуухгүй. Гэхдээ Ерөнхийлөгчийн энэ санаа саналын хуудаст албан ёсоор бичигдэхгүй ч албан бусаар зэрэгцэж явна. Хэрвээ парламентын засаглалыг төгөлдөржүүлэхийн төлөө парламентын өөрийнх нь санал болгосон Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийг ард түмний олонхи эс дэмжвэл юу болох вэ? “Парламентын засаглалыг ард түмний олонхи дэмжсэнгүй, парламентын засаглалыг тэд хүсэхгүй байгаа” мэт агуулга харагдана. Тийм логик гарна. Тэгж мушгиж улс төр хийж ч болно. Тэр цагт парламентын засаглалыг төгөлдөржүүлэх парламентын санал бодитоор унаж, парламентынхаас татгалзаж Ерөнхийлөгчийн засаглалтай болох эсэхийг асуух Ерөнхийлөгчийн санал босоо хэвээрээ үлдэнэ. Хоржоонтой нь энэ л дээ.  Үүнээс гадна Үндсэн хуульд өөрчлөлтөөр оруулсан өнгөтэй өөдтэй хэдэн заалт санал асуулгатай хамт унана. Чуулганы ирцийг нэмэгдүүлсэн, “давхар дээл”-ийг хязгаарласан, шүүхийн ерөнхий зөвлөлд иргэний төлөөллийг нэмэгдүүлсэн гэх мэт. Асуугаад ард түмний олонхи дэмжээгүй саналыг найман жилийн турш Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлт болгохыг, дахин асуухыг хориглосон хуультай. Үндсэн хуульд нэмэлт, өөрчлөлт оруулах журмын тухай хуульд ийм заалт бий. Уг заалтыг өөрчилж болох ч дахиад хамгийн багадаа дөрвөн жилийн хугацаа алдах нь хорлонтой юм даа.

Хэрвээ парламентын засаглалын төлөөх УИХ-ын санал буюу Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийн төсөл унавал, зөрөөд Ерөнхийлөгчийн засаглалын мөрөөдөл илүү амьтай, илүү хүчтэй болж ирнэ. Харин ард түмний олонхи төслийг дэмжвэл өөр хэрэг. Эсрэгээрээ, Ерөнхийлөгчийн засаглалын мөрөөдлийг бүрэн унтрааж чаддаггүй юмаа гэхэд нэг хэсэгтээ л цурманд оруулна. Энэ агуулгаараа арваннэгдүгээр сарын улс төр нь Засгийн газрыг огцруулах, ээлжит сонгуулиа есөн сарын наана, цаана хийхээс илүү үнэ цэнэтэй. Иймд Үндсэн хуулийн нэмэлт, өөрчлөлтийн төслөөр дамжуулж парламентын засаглалыг хадгалж үлдэх, авч гарах түүхэн үүрэг МАН-д ирэв. Тэд төслөө ард түмнээс асуух, санал асуулга явуулах болсноор Үндсэн хуулийг өөрчилсөн гэх түүхэн гавьяа бүтээх гэж яваад парламентын засаглалыг нурааж мэдэх түүхийн гэмтэн болох хайчинд өөрөө орж байна.

4.

Шууд л хэлье. Цаашдаа үйл явдал яаж өрнөхийг мэдэхгүй. Яг өнөөдрөөр харвал Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийн төсөл унаж мэдэхээр харагдана. Тэгэхдээ ард түмний олонхийн “дэмжихгүй” гэх хариултаар бус, ирц хүрэхгүйгээр унах магадлал нь илүү байна. Санал асуулга Ерөнхийлөгчийн сонгуультай ерөнхийдөө адилхан. Сонгуулийн насны нийт иргэдийн 50-иас дээш хувь оролцож байж ирц хүрнэ. Хэрэв сонгуулийн насны иргэдийн 50+1 хувь оролцоогүй бол Үндсэн хуулийн төслийг ард түмэн дэмжээгүйд тооцох хуультай. Харин саналаа өгсөн хүмүүсийн 50+1 хувийн босго давсан санал дэмжигдсэнд тооцогдоно. Хоёр хариулт хоёулаа яг тоогоороо тэнцэх бараг боломжгүй. Хэрвээ ирц хүрдэг л юм бол “дэмжинэ, дэмжихгүй” гэсэн хоёр хувилбарын аль нэг нь 50-иас илүү хувийн санал авах нь тодорхой.

Харамсалтай нь, санал асуулгын ирц хүрэхгүй байх гурвын зэрэг шалтгаан бодитой байна. Нэгд, сүүлийн жилүүдэд сонгуулиас сонгуульд ирц багасч байгаа.  Нотолгоо, 2017 оны Ерөнхийлөгчийн дахин санал хураалт. Хоёрт, Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтийг Ерөнхийлөгч, АН хоёр дэмжихгүй гэдгээ ил зарласан. Үүн дээр парламентад суудалгүй зарим намын улс төр нэмэрлэнэ.  Тэдний аль аль нь улс төр хийж байгаа ч, нийлбэрээрээ санал асуулгын ирц бүрдэхэд сөргөөр нөлөөлнө. Ерөнхийлөгч, АН хоёрыг дэмжигсэд заавал өөрийн биеэр очиж саналын хуудаст “дэмжихгүй”-г дугуйлах албагүй. Очихгүй байх, ирцээр бойкотлоход л хангалттай. Хүссэндээ хамгийн амраар хүрнэ. Үнэндээ бол Үндсэн хуулийн нэмэлт, өөрчлөлтийн төсөл дээр МАН-ын бүлэг ч нэгдмэл байхгүй, нэг бодлого дор жагссан харагдахгүй л байгаа. Гуравт, энэ УИХ-ын чадамж хийгээд Үндсэн хуулийг өөрчлөх хэмжээний  хүлээн зөвшөөрөгдөх нэр хүнд нийгэмд тааруу нь үнэн билээ. “ЖДҮ-чдийн УИХ Үндсэн хуульд гар хүрэх эрхгүй” гэх эсэргүүцэл нь санал асуулгын ирцэнд  сөргөөр нөлөөлөхгүй гэх газаргүй. Ерөнхийдөө л “МАН ба бусад нь” гэх талцлын дунд Үндсэн хуулийн санал асуулга явагдах бололтой. Нийгмийн өөрчлөлт, нэр хүндийн уналт, ЖДҮ-чдийн УИХ гэх нэр хоч зэрэг олон хүчин зүйлийн улмаас “МАН задравч АН-ын дайтай” гэх  сайн цаг аль хэдийнэ дууссаныг МАН-ынхан мэдэж л байгаа. Хэдий тийм ч Үндсэн хуулийн өөрчлөлтөө унагахгүй авч гарах нь МАН-ын үүрэг болов. Гэтэл санал асуулгын ирцийг хүргэх хамгийн найдвартай ганц арга нь УИХ-ын сонгуультай хамт явуулах. Одоо МАН-д гурван хувилбар байна.  Эхнийх нь, сонгуулиа нааш татаж санал асуулгыг УИХ-ын ээлжит бустай хамт ирэх арваннэгдүгээр сард хийх. Хоёрт, Үндсэн хуулийн санал асуулгаа хойш сунгаж, 2020 оны УИХ-ын ээлжит сонгуультай хамт явуулах. Гуравт, Үндсэн хуулийнхаа бүтэн автор болж, эхэлсэн ажлаа дуусгахын тулд санал асуулгаа арваннэгэн сардаа, УИХ-ын сонгуулиа 2020 ондоо хийх. Гэтэл санал асуулга унавал яах вэ, 2020 оны ээлжит сонгуульд улс төрийн амжилт, эрсдэлийн аль нь илүү байх вэ. Үүнийг МАН-ынхан л тооцож гаргана. Өөрөөр хэлбэл, “Сонгуулийн морин цаг” нь 2019 оны 11 дүгээр сард уу, эсвэл 2020 оны зургадугаар сард тохиох уу гэдгийг шийдэх, сонгох хүндхэн шийдвэрийн өмнө  МАН иржээ. Уг нь улстөрчдийн шийдвэр бүрийн цаана Монгол л хожиж байвал МАН, АН, Ерөнхийлөгч, бүгд хамт ялах юм ш дээ уг нь.

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