Рио Тинто-г Индонезоос “хөөлгөсөн” түүх манайд давтагдах уу?

turquoise-hills-soars-rio-tinto-increasing-stake-rumoursУИХ-ын хэлэлцэх асуудлаас бүгдийн халаасанд нөлөөлөх гэдэг утгаараа Оюу толгой буюу Дубайн гэрээ тойрсон улстөржилт анхаарал татаж байна. Гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалтын “барометр”, бараг дангаараа гаднаас цутгах долларыг оруулж ирж буй энэ төслийн эдийн засагт үзүүлж буй нөлөөг давтан улиглаад яахав. Зэсийн эрэлт ирээдүйд яах, манай зэсийн гол худалдан авагч урд хөрш ямар тактик барьж байгаа бол гэсэн асуултад хариу хайя. Нөгөө талд дэлхийн зэсийн хамгийн том 12 уурхайн зургаа нь удахгүй хаагдана гэсэн бодит үнэн бий. Энэ эрэлтийг урьдчилж харчихсан улсын нэг нь Хятад. Арван жилийн дараа Монголоос худалдаж авах зэсээ хямд байлгах уу, эсвэл ханшийг нь тавиад туучих уу гэсэн асуулт урд хөршийн бодлого боловсруулагчдын толгойд эргэлдэж байгаад эргэлзэх зүйл алга. Товчхондоо бид 10, 20 жилийн дараа зэсээ үнэтэй зарах уу, хямд арилжаалах уу гэсэн сонголтын өмнө байна.

Урд хөрш жилд есөн сая тонн зэс хэрэглэдэг. Дотоодынх нь уурхайнууд 1.2 сая тонныг л үйлдвэрлэдэг. Үлдсэн долоон саяынхаа тал хувь орчмыг нь хаягдлаасаа шийдчихдэг. Үлдсэн дөрвөн саяын хэрэглээн дээр нь Австрали, Чили, Перу, Индонез, Монгол “зодолддог”. Монголчуудын амыг хаачихвал нөгөө хэдийг нь айлгах амархан. Чилийг гэхэд л “Танай уурхайнууд хөгширч яваа шүү. Их үнэ хэлээд байвал импортоо танах асуудал биш” гээд суучихад цаадуул нь том дуугарч чадахгүй нөхцөлд байгаа нь үнэн. Перугийн дажгүй уурхайнуудыг ер нь худалдаад авчихсан. Хятадын тухайд яг гадаадад хөрөнгө оруулахад анхаарсан СIТIC гэж сан бий. 300 тэрбум ам.долларын үнэлгээтэй аварга сан. Африкийн ихэнх уурхайг тэндээсээ мөнгө гаргаад худалдаад авчихаж байна. Ерөөсөө Хятадад нэг л том сонирхол бий. Тэр нь ирээдүйд ханш нь хаданд гарах түүхий эдийн найдвартай хангамж. Ингээд харахаар Япон, Хятад руу манай улсын түүхий эдийг гаргахгүй байх сонирхол урд хөршид бий нь хоёр дээр хоёрыг нэмэхэд дөрөв гардаг шиг ойлгомжтой зүйл. Энэ сонирхлынх нь бас нэг илэрхийлэл нь зэсийн зах зээл дээр манайхтай өрсөлддөг Индонезоос тод харагддаг юм. Индонезийн эрх баригчид “Рио”-г бараг л “хөөгөөд” гаргачихсан. Энэ бүхний цаана зэсийн том хэрэглэгч Хятадын бодлого бий гэсэн хардлага дуулддаг.

Урд хөрш манай улс дээр ч энэ бодлогоо хэрэгжүүлээд байна уу гэж хардахаар хамгийн том өнцөг бол Оюу толгой. Таван толгойгоор дамжиж монголчуудын танил болсон “Чалко”-гийн толгой компани “Чайналко” эртнээс Оюу толгойн хувийг сонирхсоор ирсэн. Одоо ч тэр сонирхол нь хүчтэй байгаа гэсэн яриа учир мэдэх улсын дунд өрнөж буй. Оюу толгойг зүгээр ч нэг онилоогүйг батлах эхний нотолгоог өмнө дурдсан. Тэр нь тун удахгүй хэрэглээгээ дагаад цойлох зэсийн ханш. Хоёр дахь шалтгаан нь далд уурхайн технологитой холбогдоно. Өнөөдөр дэлхийд далд уурхайн технологи эзэмшиж яваа компани гэвэл “Рио”, “BHP” гэсгээд бараглана. Энэ технологийг эзэмших өндөр сонирхол ОХУ, БНХАУ хоёуланд нь бий. Учир нь Хятадын хамгийн том уурхайнууд удахгүй хаагдахаар нөхцөлд байгаа. Ер нь дэлхий дээрх ил уурхайгаар олборлох боломжтой зэсийн нөөц шавхагдах тийшээгээ хандаж эхэлсэн гэж шинжээчид онцолдог. Өөрөөр хэлбэл далд уурхайнуудаас л дэлхийн зэсийн хэрэглээг хангах ганц боломж үлдэж байгаа гэсэн үг. “Чайналко”-гийн Оюу толгойг онилсон том шалтгаан энэ л дээ. Манай Оюу толгой, Эрдэнэтийн хувьд Хятадын уурхайнуудын дэргэд аварга хүчин чадалтай гэсэн шалтгааныг энд онцлохгүй орхиж болохгүй.

“Чайналко”-гийн тухайд “Рио”-гийн арван хувийг эзэмшдэг. Нууц компаниудаараа дамжуулж есөн хувийг нь эзэмшсэн гэх мэдээлэл чих дэлсдэг. Энэ мэдээлэл ортой бол “Чайналко” “Рио”-гийн 19 хувийг атгачихсан гэсэн үг. Энэ мэт шалтгаануудыг хөөгөөд харахаар “Чайналко”- гийн Оюу толгой дахь хувь эзэмшлийн сонирхол тов тодорхой.

Мэдээж тэдний гол бай нь мөнгөнд дуртай манай улстөрчид. Индонез дээр гэхэд л мөнгөнд дуртай улстөрчдийг нь ашиглаад “Рио”-г хөөж гаргасан гэж дэлхийгээр нэг шуугьж байгаа. Үүн шиг аргыг поп голдуу улстөрчид нь УИХ-д сонгогдсоор ирсэн, цаашид ч сонгогдох өндөр магадлалтай Азийн Монголд хэрэглэхэд тийм ч хэцүү биш.

Оюу толгойтой төдийгөөс өдий хүртэл хийсээр ирсэн яриа хэлэлцээ, гэрээ бичгийг анзаарахад улстөрчдийн мөнгөний сонирхол илт давамгайлсан нь тод ажиглагддаг. Анх их өрийг дарахдаа урьдчилж мөнгө авч байсан, дараа нь олон улсын валютын сангийн хөтөлбөрт орохгүй гэхдээ хэлэлцээрийн ширээнд суусан гэж ирээд яривал биднээс шалтгаалах зүйл олон бий.

Сүүлийн үед өрнөж буй дуулиан дунд Д.Тэрбишдагва зөвшөөрөл өгсөн учраас гэсэн агуулгатай буруутгал бий. Түүхийг нь сөхвөл мань эр тэгтлээ буруутахаар юм хийгээгүй байдаг юм. Оюу толгойн баяжуулах үйлдвэрийн нээлт хойшилсон түүх л дээ. Хойшилсон шалтгаан нь олон улсад бол жаахан шогдуу. Баяжуулах үйлдвэрээс гарах хаягдлын цөөрөм гэж бий. Хаягдлын цөөрмийг олон улсын стандартаар барьчихаж, Оюу толгойнхон. Манай стандартаар бол нүх ухаж шавардаж плитадаад л болох байж. Говийн хөрс байнга халж тэлдэг онцлогтой учраас хөрөнгө оруулагч тал плита нь хагарч хөрс рүү хортой хаягдал орохоос сэргийлж дэлхийн стандартаар нь хаягдлын далангаа шийдчихэж. Хар үгээр хэлбэл шавар нялж дагтаршуулаад 100 жилийн баталгаатай зузаан гэгчийн плёнк дэвсэж хийжээ. Мэргэжлийн хяналтын нөхөр монгол стандартаа нэхэж, бүр сүүлд нь салбарыг нь хариуцсан төрийн сайдын алба хашиж байсан Д.Тэрбишдагва “Наадуулдаа зөвшөөрлийг нь өг” гэж хэлж байж Оюу толгойн баяжуулах үйлдвэр ашиглалтад орсон түүхтэй. Оюу толгой тойрсон ихэнх улстөржилтийг нэг иймэрхүү шог гэмээр тайлбар түүх дагалддаг.

УИХ-аас томилсон ажлын хэсэг Дубайн гэрээг шалгаад гаргасан урт дүгнэлт бий. Тэр дүгнэлтэд 2022-2055 он хүртэл ажиллахад төслөөс орох нийт орлого 30 гаруй тэрбум ам.доллар гэсэн тооцоо бий. Жилд 3-4 тэрбум ам.долларын орлого олох төсөл гээд бодохоор андуу тооцоо гэж эдийн засагчид хэлж байна. Өөрсдийнхөө бодож гаргасан 33 тэрбум ам.долларын 30 хувь нь Монголд, 70 хувь нь нөгөө талд үлдэнэ гэж дүгнээд байгаа. Мөн л алдсан тооцоо. Энгийн нэг тооцоо хийж үзье. Уншигчдад хялбар байлгах үүднээс алтыг хасъя. Оюу толгой одоогоор жилд 130 орчим мянган тонн зэс (баяжмал дахь металлаар) үйлдвэрлэж байна. Зэсийн үнийг 6000 ам.доллараар таамаглавал 800 орчим сая ам.доллар болно. Зөвхөн ил уурхайгаар явбал 2055 он хүргэх боломжгүй. Харин далд уурхай ашиглалтад орвол зэсийн гарц 500 мянган тонн болж өснө. Үнийг мөн адил 6000 ам.доллараар тооцвол жилд зөвхөн зэсээс гурван тэрбум ам.доллар олно. Ингээд тооцохоор 2022 оноос 2055 он хүртэл төслийн нийт мөнгөн урсгал дор хаяж 100 тэрбум ам доллар гэсэн аварга тоо гарч байна. УИХ-ын ажлын хэсэг яаж тооцохоороо 30 гаруй тэрбум ам.доллар гэсэн тоо гаргасан юм бүү мэд. Аль нэг гишүүн, эсвэл ямар нэг ажлын хэсгийн хэсэг гишүүн энгийн тооцоо хийж чадахгүй алдсан байж болно. Гэхдээ үүний цаана монгол төрийн нэр хүнд гэж бийг хаа хаанаа бодох л учиртай.

Үүний оронд өгөөжөө яг ингэж нэмэгдүүлье гэх мэт ажил хэрэгч яриа хэлэлцээ өрнүүлбэл бид ядах нь аа л дэлхийд зөв харагдана. Тэгэхгүйгээр өөрсдийнхөө буруу, алдааг хөрөнгө оруулагч руу нялзаагаад суухаар гадныханд зэрлэгүүд, оркууд гэж харагдаад байна. Эцэст нь нэг зүйлийг онцлоход орчин үед ардчилсан төрийг таван зүйлээр хэмждэг болсон гэх судлаачдын тайлбар бий. Өмнө нь яаж ийгээд санал авчих, тэгээд дахин хуваарилалт хий, тэр л төр гэсэн ойлголт давамгайлж байсан бол өнөө цагт ардчилсан төрт улсуудын тухайд гурван функц нэмэгдчихэж. Ардчилсан төрт улсууд бизнесийнхээ хувьд гадагшаа эрсдэлгүй харагдахыг хүсдэг болсон гэнэ . Энэ сонирхол Хятад, Англи алинд нь ч тод анзаарагддаг. Хоёр дахь нь өрсөлдөх чадварын уралдаан. Хонконг, Швейцарь, Сингапур, АНУ урд хойноо орж өрсөлдөж байна. Өрсөлдөх чадвараараа урагшилж буй хамгийн том жишээ бол Энэтхэг. Бизнес эрхлэх индексээрээ 2014 онд 144 дүгээрт орж байсан Энэтхэг өнгөрсөн жил 77-д жагссан. Энэ дөрвөн жилийн хугацаанд гадаадын шууд хөрөнгө оруулалтынхаа хэмжээг гурав дахин өсгөсөн байдаг. Бизнесийн зөвшөөрөлтэй холбоотой 1000 хуулиа хүчингүй болгосон энэ улсын эдийн засгийн өсөлт нь Хятадын дээр гараад ирчихсэн. Хэдхэн жилийн дараа дэлхийд тавд орно гэж амбицалж байна. Өнөөдөр 11-т жагсч яваа улсын хувьд маш том амбиц. Социалист бюрократ төртэй гэгддэг улс ингэж шинэчлэгдэж байгаа нь өрсөлдөх чадварын уралдаан хэр эрчээ авсаны маш тод жишээ. Ардчилсан төрийн гурав дахь огцом өөрчлөлт нь хөрөнгө оруулалт татахын төлөөх өрсөлдөөн. Хамгийн том жишээ нь дэлхийн худалдааны дайны. Трамп Хятадад байгаа хөрөнгө оруулалтаа өөр рүүгээ буцаах гэж худалдааны дайны эрчийг чангалсаар суугаа. Английн Европын холбооноос гарах гээд байгаа нь ч ийм учиртай. Европын холбооны хүнд суртал их байна гэсэн шалтгаан л энэ бүхний цаана бий. Англи “Европын холбооноос гараад нэгдүгээрт цагаачдын асуудал дээр хатуу бодлого явуулъя, хоёрдугаарт Америк шиг либерал бодлогоор урагшилъя” гэж байгаа нь сүүлийн үед өрнөж буй үйл явдлуудаас төвөггүй харагддаг.

Байгалийн баялаггүй Сингапур нийгмийн даатгал, эрүүл мэндийн даатгалаас төвлөрсөн их мөнгөний урсгалаа иргэдээ орон сууцжуулахад чиглүүлж , үл хөдлөхийн салбар дээрээ өндийчихлөө. Манай улсын хувьд байгалийн баялагтай , баялгийг нь өндөр үнээр авах Хятад гэж “өлсгөлөн” зах зээл ердөө хажууханд байна. Сингапурын мөнгө хийх суурь үл хөдлөх бол биднийх баялгаа хажуухны аварга зах зээлдээ үнэ хүргэж бусад салбараа өндийлгөх. Баялгаа үнэд хүргэхийн тулд энэ салбарт хэрэгжиж байгаа хамгийн том, цорын ганц төслөө л улстөржүүлмээргүй байгаа юм даа.

Ц.Баасансүрэн 

Эх сурвалж: Өдрийн сонин


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